John M. Kacmar, Broker
Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage
I am delighted to offer you up to date market statistics and insight into the trends that drive the real estate industry. I hope this information will allow you to analyze the marketplace that you are buying or selling in and make the best decision for your circumstances. - John
As unpredictable as the summer weather, the August 2017 market was just as irregular with some properties selling quickly with or without offer presentation dates and bidding wars, while plenty of others waited it out.
And even though the monthly Sales-To-Listings Ratio indicated a Seller’s market in August 2017, the significant drop from 97.73 in August 2016 to 58.28 in August 2017 showed a clear sign that the market had changed year over year and demand was not the same as last August. The ratio compares the number of sales to the number of new listings in any given market. A Seller’s market occurs when the Sales-To-Listings Ratio reaches 55% or more. A Buyer’s market occurs when the Sales-To-Listings Ratio is 35% or less.
Perhaps due to some Sellers hoping to benefit from the historically low inventory which has been helping to drive up sale prices, new listings were up 6% from last August with 326 new listings reported August 2017 over 309 in August 2016. Year to Date (YTD) new listings were down 12% year over year with 2660 new listings reported August 2017 vs 3022 in August 2016.
The Seasonally Adjusted Months of Inventory for August 2017 was 3.7 months, up from 2.1 months last August, but still well below the long term average for this time of year. Two years ago the Seasonally Adjusted Months of Inventory was 4.7, and 5 years ago it was 11.2. Months of Inventory is a measure of how long it would take to sell current inventories (assuming that no more listings are added) at the current sales pace.
And likely due to the usual summer slump combined with low inventory and patient Buyers waiting for prices to come down, sales were down 37% year over year with 190 sales reported in August 2017 compared to 302 sales reported in August 2016. Of those 190 sales, the number of sales in every price category from under $50,000 to $3,000,000 plus, was down or equal to August 2016 with the exception of sales of properties ranging from $700,000 to $799,000 and $900,000 to $999,999, where sales were up over the number of sales recorded August 2016. YTD sales were down 10% with 1752 sales reported vs 1943 in August 2016.
With ongoing demand for residential single family homes both from local Buyers and families moving from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the average price of a single family residential home in the Western Region rose 20.1% from $465,199 in August 2016 to $558,981 in August 2017. However, likely due to the decline in the number of sales year over year, the Total Sales Dollar Volume for August 2017 was down 30% over August 2016. YTD figures still showed an 11% increase given the particularly strong market performance experienced earlier in the year.
YTD, the average sale price of a residential single family home was up across the board for the Western Region August 2017 over August 2016 however the number of sales was down in all areas except The Blue Mountains. The YTD average sale price of a residential single family home in Collingwood in August 2017 was up 20.5%, 502,994 vs $417,399 in August 2016. The number of sales in Collingwood YTD was down 16.7% year over year. The Blue Mountains reported a 28.2% increase in average sale price, $786,686 vs $613,710 year over year, with a 6.4% increase in the number of homes sold in August 2017 vs August 2016. YTD, Prices were up 22.6% in The Municipality of Meaford with August 2017 reporting an average sale price of $404,611 vs $329,978 in August 2016. The number of sales decreased 20.2% year over year. Grey Highlands saw the largest price increase YTD with a 29.2% jump year over year, with the August 2017 price coming in at $580,400 vs $449,112 in August 2016. Sales were down 4.2%. Clearview reported a 19.3% increase in the average price, $554,153 over $464,436 year over year with a 24.8% decrease in the number of homes sold 2017 vs 2016. YTD, Wasaga Beach was up 27.4%, with the average sales price reported at $421,309 over $330,724 for August 2016. Sales were down 22.4% year over year.
Not only did August experience cool temperatures, the August market was definitely cooler than the frenzied spring market. Many bold Sellers with high expectations remained hopeful they would see higher prices, while tentative Buyers were prepared to offer less than asking or simply wait it out. With a second interest rate increase announced early September by the Bank of Canada, it remains to be seen whether that will add any additional pressure on fall market conditions.
Prepared by Diana Lea Berdini, Broker/Office Manager Collingwood/Owen Sound
Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage
These statistics are compiled using data from the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®