John M. Kacmar, Broker
Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage
I am delighted to offer you up to date market statistics and insight into the trends that drive the real estate industry. I hope this information will allow you to analyze the marketplace that you are buying or selling in and make the best decision for your circumstances. - John
Certainly the pace of the market in July was significantly cooler than previous months possibly due to the seasonal lull the summer normally brings and/or Buyer’s and Seller’s stepping back to observe the outcome of changes brought on through recent provincial government intervention and The Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate for the first time in seven years on July 12th.
The low supply of properties continued across the Western Region in July 2017. New listings were down slightly, with 321 new listings reported July 2017 over 328 in July 2016 marking a 2% decrease. The Year to Date (Y TD) new listings were down 14% year over year with 2335 new listings reported July 2017 vs 2713 in July 2016.
While still strictly falling within the parameters of a Seller’s market, demand was not the same as last July. The monthly Sales-To-Listings Ratio was 55.14 for July 2017, a substantial drop from 80.18 last July. The ratio compares the number of sales to the number of listings in any given market. A Seller’s market occurs when the Sales-To-Listings Ratio reaches 55% or more. A Buyer’s market occurs when the Sales-To-Listings Ratio is 35% or less.
Likely due to a combination of market burnout, low inventory and Buyer hesitation, sales were down 33% year over year with 177 sales reported in July 2017 compared to 263 sales reported in July 2016. Y TD sales were down 5% with 1566 sales reported vs 1641 in July 2016. While Total Sales Dollar Volume for July 2017 was down 18% over July 2016, Y TD figures still showed a 19% increase given the particularly strong market performance experienced earlier in the year.
With more activity year over year in properties in the higher price ranges ($800,000 to $1,749,999) it’s not surprising that across the Western region the month of July 2017 saw the average price of a single family residential home rise 19.7% from $470,920 in July 2016 to $563,324 in July 2017.
YTD, the average sale price of a residential single family home was up across the board for the Western Region July 2017 over July 2016, however as mentioned in the paragraph above, the number of sales was down in all areas except Grey Highlands (where the number of sales was the same year over year) and The Blue Mountains (where the number of sales was up 17.7%). The average sale price of a residential single family home in Collingwood in July 2017 was up 21.9%, $498,465 vs $408,904 in July 2016. The number of sales in Collingwood was down 15.7% year over year. The Blue Mountains reported a 22.9% increase in average sale price, $761,764 vs $619,908 year over year, with a 17.7% increase in the number of homes sold in July 2017 vs July 2016. Prices were up 24.5% in The Municipality of Meaford with July 2017 reporting an average sale price of $395,315 vs $317,605 in July 2016. The number of sales decreased 8.0% year over year. The average sale price in Grey Highlands jumped 20.2%, with the July 2017 price coming in at $554,733 vs $461,534 in July 2016. As indicated, the number of sales was the same year over year at 40. Clearview reported a 27.2% increase in the average price, $565,302 over $444,447 year over year with a 22.7% decrease in the number of homes sold 2017 vs 2017. Wasaga Beach was up 26.6%, with the average sales price reported at $414,953 over $327,772 for July 2016. Sales were down 19.0% year over year.
Likely due in large part to limited inventory in the lower priced properties, the number of property sales under $699,999 was down July 2017 over July 2016. The one exception was in properties priced between $300,000 and $349,999 where sales surpassed those the year previous by 1 (27 compared to 26). Sales of properties ranging from $700,000 to $3,000,000 plus, were up or equal to the number of sales recorded last July, with the exception of properties between $2,500,000 and $2,999,999 where sales were down marginally (0 compared to 1 sale last year).
The Seasonally Adjusted Months of Inventory for July 2017 was 2.9 months, up slightly from 2.6 months last July, but still well below the long term average for this time of year. Two years ago the Seasonally Adjusted Months of Inventory was 5.0, and 5 years ago it was 11.4. Months of Inventory is a measure of how long it would take to sell current inventories (assuming that no more listings are added) at the current sales pace.
All eyes will be on how the market performs after the summer months and the recent cooling trend in the market. Low inventory and the super-hot conditions that led to multiple offers driving prices up earlier this year seemed to have Buyers waiting in the wings for the time being. However, with all that Southern Georgian Bay has to offer, the Region should expect to see ongoing healthy sales in the months to come, but simply at a more sustainable pace.
Prepared by Diana Lea Berdini, Broker/Office Manager Collingwood/Owen Sound
Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage
These statistics are compiled using data from the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®